Juan P. Aparicio | Economics Job Market CV

Economist working in political economy, development economics, and applied microeconomics.

Accessible highlights from my July 2026 job market CV. The downloadable PDF is the complete, canonical version and includes references.

Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identities, Emotional Cues, and the FARC

We combine match timing with spatial and temporal variation in rain-induced radio reception in Colombia. Family-oriented messages broadcast during national-team matches induced more than 1,000 FARC demobilizations, while appeals to national unity had no detectable effect. Persuasion was strongest after unexpected losses made family identity more salient.

Research and professional experience

2024-present

Research Scientist, Institute for Replication

Institute for Replication, Canada. Organizes replication games and AI Games projects on human-AI interaction and research productivity. Has led studies involving more than 700 researchers and contributed to projects involving more than 2,000; co-organized replication work that fed into publications in journals including Nature, PNAS, Psychological Science, and Nature Human Behaviour.

2025-2026

Visiting positions

Visiting Scholar, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge (May 2026). Visiting Scholar, Victoria University of Wellington (December 2025).

2026

Economics Research Consultant, Pareto

Provides economics-research expertise for LLM training and evaluation, including task design and assessment in economic reasoning, research design, and evidence evaluation. Details subject to confidentiality.

May 2024-present

Senior Economic Fellow, CivicScience

Ongoing part-time advisory role on survey-based demand forecasting, following the position below.

Dec 2022 - May 2024

Senior Data Scientist & Economist, CivicScience

CivicScience, Pittsburgh, USA. Developed demand-forecasting applications using CivicScience's real-time survey data and tested them with clients including McDonald's, Target, and Bank of America. The forecasting work later became a product line; continues as a CivicScience fellow and advisor.

2021-2023

Senior Consultant & Postdoctoral Researcher, Universidad EAFIT

Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia (Senior Consultant, Jul 2021 - Oct 2022; Postdoctoral Researcher, Jun 2022 - Jan 2023, concurrent with the final stretch of the PhD). Led EAFIT's consulting work with the Federación Nacional de Departamentos on liquor and cigarette smuggling in Colombia, resulting in the policy report listed below.

Training

2022

Ph.D. in Economics

University of Western Australia. Board of the Graduate Research School Dean's List, Honourable Mention (2023).

2018

M.Sc. in Economics

Université catholique de Louvain.

2016

B.S. in Economics

Universidad EAFIT. Graduated with honors.

Publications, reports, and research pipeline.

Linked paper titles where public versions are available. Journal and series names are highlighted for scanability.

Peer-reviewed articles

Google Scholar
  1. Captivating news: Media attention and FARC kidnappings

    With Michael Jetter. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 202, 69-81, 2022.

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.07.029

  2. AI-assisted teams outperform AI-led teams but not human-only teams in assessing research reproducibility in quantitative social science

    Large-scale collaboration (272 authors). With A. Brodeur, D. Valenta, A. Marcoci, D. Mikola, B. Barbarioli, et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(22), e2524747123, 2026. Role: designed research, performed research, organized replication games, co-wrote the paper.

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2524747123

  3. Demanda de internet: el sector mayorista de telecomunicaciones colombiano

    With John J. García Rendón. Revista de Economía del Rosario, 19(2), 2016.

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.5624

Working papers

  1. Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identities, Emotional Cues, and the FARC

    With Michael Jetter and Christopher Parsons. First and corresponding author. Revised July 2026; earlier version: IZA Discussion Paper No. 16054. Under journal review.

  2. The Wrong Snowball: Reintegration Signals and Demobilization in Colombia

    With Verónica Abril. Working paper.

  3. You Speak, We Shoot: On the Unintended Consequences of Community Radios on Colombia's Violent Conflict

    With Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza and Eric Neumayer. Under journal review.

  4. Looks Expensive Until It Doesn't: The Timing of Pain-and-Palliative Care in Colombia

    With Diana Echavarria. Working paper.

  5. The Reproducibility and Robustness of Economics and Political Science by Method and Field

    With Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook, Lenka Fiala, Ghina Abdul Baki, et al. Manuscript in preparation; restricted-circulation draft, April 2026.

  6. Mass Reproducibility in Psychological Science

    With Abel Brodeur, Ghina Abdul Baki, Luna Fazio, and collaborators. Manuscript in preparation; author list pending finalization, June 2026.

Comments, reports, and work in progress

  1. Comment on "Telementoring and Homeschooling during School Closures: A Randomized Experiment in Rural Bangladesh" by Hassan et al.

    With Nikolai Cook, Derek Mikola, Ole Rogeberg, David Valenta, Michael Wiebe, Carl Bonander, and Abel Brodeur. The Economic Journal, 2026.

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueag040

  2. A Comment on "Delivering Remote Learning Using a Low-Tech Solution: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Bangladesh"

    With Lenka Fiala, Jack Fitzgerald, Essi Kujansuu, Derek Mikola, David Valenta, Michael Wiebe, Matthew D. Webb, and Abel Brodeur. I4R Discussion Paper Series, 2025.

  3. Estrategias anticontrabando y crimen organizado

    Policy report/book. EAFIT & Federación Nacional de Departamentos, 2022. Consulting engagement led by Juan P. Aparicio.

  4. Violence and Migration: Analyzing the Mujahideen

    With Christopher Parsons. Work in progress.

  5. Polarization in Democratic Elections: Insights from an Enhanced Hotelling's Model

    Work in progress.

  6. Preaching Change: The Effect of Evangelical Churches on Crime in Colombian Cities

    With Thomas Lloyd and María Medellín Esguerra. Work in progress.

Teaching across microeconomics, econometrics, development, and macroeconomics.

Recent courses and selected evaluation evidence are summarized below; the dedicated teaching page includes student comments, supervision, and service.

Topics in Econometrics: Applied Microeconometrics

Universidad EAFIT, 2026-II (current); also taught in 2025.

Introduction to Microeconomics

Universidad EIA, 2024.

Microeconomics Seminar

Universidad EAFIT, 2021–2023. Student evaluation: 4.8/5.

Growth and Development

Universidad EAFIT, 2022. Student evaluation: 4.7/5.

Funding and awards.

Selected items most relevant for academic, policy, and applied research audiences.

Research on Research

Co-investigator. Research on Research initiative funding to I4R, USD 187,210, 2025.

Sloan Foundation

Co-investigator. Sloan Foundation funding to I4R, USD 134,784, 2025.

Graduate awards

Board of the Graduate Research School Dean's List (Honourable Mention), postgraduate award, top-up scholarship, RTP scholarship.

Methods, software, and languages

  • Methods: applied microeconomics, causal inference, political economy, time-series and demand forecasting, replication audits, survey data analysis, human-AI evaluation
  • Software: R, Python, SQL, Stata, LaTeX, Excel
  • Spanish: native
  • English: C1
  • French and Portuguese: basic reading comprehension; limited speaking proficiency

Selected presentations

  • IEA World Congress; European Economic Association - ESEM
  • Behavioral Insights in Development and Peacebuilding; LAFT America
  • Universidad de los Andes; Universidad del Rosario; Curtin University; Monash University; University of Western Australia