Conflict and demobilization
How armed actors respond to information, identity, and emotional cues.
Juan P. Aparicio | Applied microeconomics
Applied economist building credible evidence for policy and markets.
I am a PhD economist and research scientist affiliated with the University of Ottawa and the Institute for Replication. My work combines political economy, causal inference, reproducibility, and applied data science to study conflict, information, demobilization, forecasting, and human-AI research workflows.
Core field
Political economy of conflict
Methods
Causal inference and prediction
Research themes
Questions where institutions, information, and violence meet.
The work combines applied microeconomics with political economy, behavioral mechanisms, and reproducibility checks.
Media and agenda setting
When public attention changes political incentives and strategic behavior.
Credible evidence
Replication, robustness, and research workflows that make results easier to trust.
Applied AI
Using AI as a measurable research partner rather than a black-box productivity claim.
Featured work
Selected work on information, conflict, and evidence.
Representative papers and projects on how media, identity, institutions, and reproducibility shape social-science claims.
Profile
A research profile built around evidence production.
My academic work centers on political economy and development, with a particular focus on conflict, media, crime, and institutions in Colombia. At the Institute for Replication, I have personally organized around 10 replication games, directly spearheaded papers with more than 700 replicators, and worked on projects involving more than 2,000 replicators.
I also work across applied data science and behavioral economics, including demand forecasting, market analytics, human-AI research evaluation, and policy-facing diagnostics for private-sector and institutional settings.
Read the CV summary