Conflict and demobilization
How armed actors respond to information, identity, and emotional cues.
Juan P. Aparicio | Applied economist
Applied economist studying conflict, information, and research credibility.
I study how information changes the course of violent conflict — and whether published social science holds up. In Colombia, my co-authors and I found that radio messages aired during football matches persuaded more than 1,000 FARC fighters to demobilize, and that news coverage of a proposed prisoner exchange changed who the group kidnapped. At the Institute for Replication, I run large-scale replication projects, including a PNAS study testing whether AI teams can do the checking.
Core field
Political economy of conflict
Methods
Causal inference and prediction
Research themes
Questions where institutions, information, and violence meet.
I combine applied microeconomics with political economy, the psychology behind how people react to information, and reproducibility checks.
Media and agenda setting
When public attention changes political incentives and strategic behavior.
Credible evidence
Replication, robustness, and research workflows that make results easier to trust.
Applied AI
Measuring what AI actually contributes to research, instead of assuming it.
Featured work
Selected work on information, conflict, and evidence.
Selected papers and projects on media, identity, institutions, and research reproducibility in social science.
Published
2026
AI and Reproducibility
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(22), e2524747123
Peer-reviewed publication
288 researchers in 103 teams reproduced published social science with no AI, AI assistance, or AI in the lead: human-only and AI-assisted teams reproduced 94% and 91% of results, AI-led teams only 37%.
Applied AIReproducibilityMeta-science
Working papers
2023
Demobilizing Rebels
IZA Discussion Paper No. 16054
Under journal review (IZA Discussion Paper)
Radio messages aired during national-team football matches persuaded FARC fighters to demobilize: family-themed appeals brought home more than 1,000 rebels, while national-unity appeals did not.
ConflictIdentityBehavioral
Published
2022
Captivating News
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 202, 69-81
Peer-reviewed publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.07.029
News coverage of a proposed prisoner exchange shifted FARC kidnappings away from ransom targets and toward political hostages the group could trade.
ConflictMediaPolitical economy
Working papers
2025
Community Radios
Working paper
Under journal review
Introducing community radios in Colombia increased killings by right-wing paramilitaries (AUC) but not by the FARC — and FARC violence even fell over time in more left-leaning municipalities.
MediaConflictColombia
Profile
Research on two tracks: producing evidence, and checking it.
My academic work centers on political economy and development — conflict, media, crime, and institutions, mostly in Colombia. At the Institute for Replication, I organize “replication games” — events where teams of researchers re-check published studies, sometimes with AI in the loop. Projects I have led have involved more than 700 researchers; across everything I have contributed to, more than 2,000. That work has fed into publications in journals including Nature and PNAS.
I also work in applied data science: demand forecasting, market analytics, evaluating how researchers and AI work together, and analysis that helps companies and institutions decide.
Read the CV summary