Strand 1 · Political economy
Conflict and demobilization
How armed actors respond to information, identity, and emotional cues.
2026–27 Academic Job Market | Research Scientist, Institute for Replication
Applied microeconomist studying political conflict and research credibility.
My research has two distinct strands. The first examines the political economy of conflict and information — how media, persuasion, and reintegration shape violence and demobilization, primarily in Colombia. The second studies research credibility — large-scale replication and how human–AI collaboration changes the quality of social-science research.
Core field
Political economy of conflict
Methods
Causal inference and prediction
Job Market Paper
Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identities, Emotional Cues, and the FARC
Using match timing and rain-induced variation in radio reception, we show that family-oriented messages broadcast during national-team football matches induced more than 1,000 FARC demobilizations. Appeals to national unity had no detectable effect, and persuasion was strongest after unexpected losses made family identity more salient.
Research themes
Two research strands, pursued on their own terms.
One strand studies conflict, information, and political behavior. The other studies reproducibility and the production of credible evidence, including research with AI.
Strand 1 · Political economy
Media and agenda setting
When public attention changes political incentives and strategic behavior.
Strand 2 · Research credibility
Credible evidence
Replication, robustness, and research workflows that make results easier to trust.
Strand 2 · Research credibility
Applied AI
Measuring what AI actually contributes to research, instead of assuming it.
Featured work
Selected work on information, conflict, and evidence.
Selected papers and projects on media, identity, institutions, and research reproducibility in social science.
Working papers
Revised July 2026
Demobilizing Rebels
Job Market PaperJob Market Paper; earlier version: IZA Discussion Paper No. 16054
Under journal review
Radio messages aired during national-team football matches persuaded FARC fighters to demobilize: family-themed appeals brought home more than 1,000 rebels, while national-unity appeals did not.
ConflictIdentityBehavioral
Published
2026
AI and Reproducibility
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(22), e2524747123
Peer-reviewed publication
288 researchers in 103 teams reproduced published social science with no AI, AI assistance, or AI in the lead: human-only and AI-assisted teams reproduced 94% and 91% of results, AI-led teams only 37%.
Applied AIReproducibilityMeta-science
Published
2022
Captivating News
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 202, 69-81
Peer-reviewed publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.07.029
News coverage of a proposed prisoner exchange shifted FARC kidnappings away from ransom targets and toward political hostages the group could trade.
ConflictMediaPolitical economy
Working papers
2025
Community Radios
Working paper
Under journal review
The introduction of community radios in Colombia was associated with increased killings by right-wing paramilitaries (AUC) but not by the FARC — and FARC violence fell over time in more left-leaning municipalities.
MediaConflictColombia
Profile
Two distinct strands: political economy and research credibility.
My political-economy research studies conflict, media, crime, and institutions, primarily in Colombia. It asks how information, identity, and public policy change the choices of armed actors and communities.
Separately, my research on credibility studies whether empirical findings reproduce and how research teams work with AI. At the Institute for Replication, I design and coordinate multi-team replication studies; for the PNAS AI Games project, I helped design and conduct the research, organize replication games, and write the paper.
Read the CV summary