JPA Juan P. Aparicio Economist · 2026–27 academic job market
2026–27 Academic Job Market | Research Scientist, Institute for Replication

Applied microeconomist studying political conflict and research credibility.

My research has two distinct strands. The first examines the political economy of conflict and information — how media, persuasion, and reintegration shape violence and demobilization, primarily in Colombia. The second studies research credibility — large-scale replication and how human–AI collaboration changes the quality of social-science research.

Job market paper (PDF) CV (PDF) Research Teaching
I4R Research Scientist at the Institute for Replication
JMP Peacefully demobilizing rebels: Identities, emotional cues and the FARC
Fields Political economy, development, and applied microeconomics
Portrait of Juan P. Aparicio
Current focus Applied political economy, reproducibility, and research and data workflows.
Core field Political economy of conflict
Methods Causal inference and prediction
Job Market Paper

Peacefully demobilizing rebels: Identities, emotional cues and the FARC

With Michael Jetter and Christopher Parsons

Using match timing and rain-induced variation in radio reception, we show that family-oriented messages broadcast during national-team football matches induced more than 1,000 FARC demobilizations. Appeals to national unity had no detectable effect, and persuasion was strongest after unexpected losses made family identity more salient.

Download current paper (PDF) Paper page
Research themes

Two research strands, pursued on their own terms.

One strand studies conflict, information, and political behavior. The other studies reproducibility and the production of credible evidence, including research with AI.

Strand 1 · Political economy

Conflict and demobilization

How armed actors respond to information, identity, and emotional cues.

Strand 1 · Political economy

Media and agenda setting

When public attention changes political incentives and strategic behavior.

Strand 2 · Research credibility

Credible evidence

Replication, robustness, and research workflows that make results easier to trust.

Strand 2 · Research credibility

Applied AI

Measuring what AI actually contributes to research, instead of assuming it.

Featured work

Selected papers and projects on media, identity, institutions, and research reproducibility in social science.

Working papers

Peacefully demobilizing rebels: Identities, emotional cues and the FARC

Job Market Paper

With Michael Jetter and Christopher Parsons

Job Market Paper; earlier version: IZA Discussion Paper No. 16054

Under journal review

Radio messages aired during national-team football matches persuaded FARC fighters to demobilize: family-themed appeals brought home more than 1,000 rebels, while national-unity appeals did not.

ConflictIdentityBehavioral
Download current paper (PDF)Earlier IZA versionVideo presentation
Published 2026

AI-assisted teams outperform AI-led teams but not human-only teams in assessing research reproducibility in quantitative social science

With A. Brodeur, D. Valenta, A. Marcoci, D. Mikola, B. Barbarioli, et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(22), e2524747123

Peer-reviewed publication

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2524747123

288 researchers in 103 teams reproduced published social science with no AI, AI assistance, or AI in the lead: human-only and AI-assisted teams reproduced 94% and 91% of results, AI-led teams only 37%.

Applied AIReproducibilityMeta-science
PNAS DOIIZA Discussion PaperData & code (GitHub)
View all research
Profile

Two distinct strands: political economy and research credibility.

My political-economy research studies conflict, media, crime, and institutions, primarily in Colombia. It asks how information, identity, and public policy change the choices of armed actors and communities.

Separately, my research on credibility studies whether empirical findings reproduce and how research teams work with AI. At the Institute for Replication, I design and coordinate multi-team replication studies; for the PNAS AI Games project, I helped design and conduct the research, organize replication games, and write the paper.

Read the CV summary
Juan P. Aparicio outdoors