Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC
Radio messages aired during national-team football matches persuaded FARC fighters to demobilize: family-themed appeals brought home more than 1,000 rebels, while national-unity appeals did not.
Question and contribution.
Can a government talk rebels into coming home? Colombia broadcast demobilization appeals during national-team football matches. Using game dates, kick-off times, and rain-induced variation in radio signal strength over 2003-2016, we estimate that family-themed messages persuaded more than 1,000 FARC fighters to demobilize, while national-unity messages had no detectable effect. Messages were most persuasive when heard during unexpected losses, when family ties were front of mind — a mechanism we formalize in a model of identity and emotions and validate using family-specific holidays and local climate anomalies.
Abstract.
In the early 2000s, the Colombian government aired messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We first study the strategy's effectiveness, leveraging game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength in a municipality-day-level panel spanning 2003-2016. Over 1,000 rebels demobilized because of family-themed (but not national-unity-themed) messages, received during unexpected losses (i.e., negative emotional cues). We then model a rebel's demobilization decision, combining identity salience with their emotional state. Finally, we corroborate the model's predictions examining family- versus non-family-specific holidays and local climatic anomalies.
How the project is framed.
BibTeX.
@techreport{aparicio2023demobilizing,
title = {Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC},
author = {Juan P. Aparicio and Michael Jetter and Christopher Parsons},
institution = {IZA Discussion Paper No. 16054},
year = {2023},
url = {https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/16054/peacefully-demobilizing-rebels-identity-emotional-cues-and-the-farc}
}