Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identities, Emotional Cues, and the FARC

Question and contribution.

Can a government talk rebels into coming home? Colombia broadcast demobilization appeals during national-team football matches. Using game dates, kick-off times, and rain-induced variation in radio signal strength over 2003-2016, we estimate that family-themed messages persuaded more than 1,000 FARC fighters to demobilize, while national-unity messages had no detectable effect. Messages were most persuasive when heard during unexpected losses, when family ties were front of mind — a mechanism we formalize in a model of identity and emotions and validate using family-specific holidays and local climate anomalies.

Abstract.

In 2005, the Colombian government started airing messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We study the strategy's effectiveness using game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength at the municipality-day level from 2003-2016. Findings suggest over 1,000 rebels demobilized after games that aired family-themed, but not national-unity-themed, messages. Demobilizations spiked particularly after unexpected losses. We then model a rebel's decision by combining identity salience with the persuasive power of transient emotional states, and corroborate the model's predictions using family-specific holidays and unusually cold local weather.

Paper presentation.

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How the project is framed.

BibTeX.

@techreport{aparicio2023demobilizing,
  title = {Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identities, Emotional Cues, and the FARC},
  author = {Juan P. Aparicio and Michael Jetter and Christopher Parsons},
  institution = {Job Market Paper; earlier version: IZA Discussion Paper No. 16054},
  year = {2023},
  url = {/assets/docs/Juan_Aparicio_Job_Market_Paper.pdf}
}